Simulation explorer

April tactical model probabilities across 1,111 scenarios.

SNP majority 59.3%
SNP + Green majority 99.7%
SNP + Green supermajority, 86+ seats 10.4%
Reform second or tied second 93.2%
Greens tied or above Labour 52.5%
Conservative last or tied-last among main six parties 67.9%
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All-party seat distribution

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SNP + Green 95% range: 69-89 99% range: 66-93

Constituency vote-share uncertainty

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Source: Stonehaven MRP Modelling | April 2026 tactical simulation outputs